Update on Predictions

Back in January, I made some predictions.  Here's how they turned out:

1.  The price of oil would go up significantly.   Kind of.  The price is up from the low it got to last year, but it didn't raise as much as I thought it would.

2.  The economy will continue to drop.  Spot on.  The economists say the recession is over, but I'm still seeing a lot of folks looking for a job.

3.  The housing market will bottom out.  Got this one right, I hope.  Prices are stabilizing.  I hope this is the bottom instead of a plateau before plunging again.

4.  One of the Detroit Big 3 will go out of business.  Well, sort of got this one.  Chrysler and GM are working on making it back, and GM is selling off most of their subsidiaries.  But they're still independent companies.  Ford seems to be doing well.

5.  A major disaster will occur and President Obama will not react well.  Not even close.  No big disasters this year, which is a good thing.

6.  Iran will get the bomb.  Not yet, but they're getting closer.

7.  US casualties in Iraq will decline and those in Afghanistan will increase.  Spot on.

8.  Obama will have dwindling approval ratings.  Yep, got that one.

9.  The Republicans will work to make themselves more electable at the expense of their credibility as conservatives.  I'll take the hit on this one.  They're making themselves more electable, but President Obama is helping them stay on the right of center by pushing legislation and policies that are very left of center.

10.  The Republicans in Congress will have a hard time keeping President Obama from getting everything he wishes for.  Correct, but with a caveat.  The legislation that Obama and the Democrat leadership have put forward is so polarizing it's making it easy for Republicans to get unity in their opposition, and making it hard for the Democrats to keep their conservative brethren in line.

11.  UK will beat UL.  Wrong, but the rivalry continues.

So, I got a few right, and a few wrong.  I'll have my 2010 predictions up in a few days.

Happy New Year!

Well, it's been a heck of a year, and I'm looking forward to 2010. 

I've had a lot of people who've made this a good year, and I'd like to thank each of you.

I hope that you all have had a good year, and I also hope you have a safe New Year's Eve.

Picks, Week 17

Last week of the regular season.

Indy and Buffalo - Indy
New Orleans and Carolina - New Orleans
Jacksonville and Cleveland - Cleveland
New England and Houston - Houston
New York Giants and Minnesota - Minnesota.  A friend of mine is going to the game in Minneapolis, and I hope she has a great time!
San Fransisco and Saint Louis - San Fransisco
Atlanta and Tampa Bay - Tampa
Pittsburgh and Miami - Pittsburgh
Chicago and Detroit - Chicago
Philadelphia and Dallas - Dallas
Kansas City and Denver - KC
Baltimore and Oakland - Oakland.  RAIDERS!!!!
Tennessee and Seattle - Seattle
Washington and San Diego - Washington.  Come on guys, just win one more!
Green Bay and Arizona - Green Bay
Cinci and New York Jets - Cinci

Results, Weeks 14, 15, and 16

Just catching up.

Week 14 - 9 and 7
Week 15 - 6 and 10
Week 16 - 8 and 8

For the season I've got 126 correct picks and 114 incorrect picks. 

Breaking a policy

I admit it, I read "I Can Has Cheezburger".  Yes, it's childish, but it gives me a chuckle.

However, I have a policy of not posting the pictures.  But I have to break my policy today:

I probably find it funny for two reasons. First, I recently had a baby in the house with 3 cats, and this is one of the ways they would react if the baby was crying.  After a few minutes of trying to continue their lives with BooBoo crying, they'd all make their way to wherever Irish Woman and I happened to be and add their meows and nips to the noise.  Kind of their way of telling us that the baby needed us and to make it stop.  As he got older, we were able to differentiate between his "I'm just squawling to hear my own voice" cries and the cries for actual problems.  The cats, however, never did.  It was kind of entertaining to watch Koshka go into spasms trying to get us to go take care of BooBoo when he was just crying because he was tired but not yet ready to go to sleep.

Second, it's funny because my friend just brought home twin boys, and I'm sure this scene is being played out at his house over and over again.  As much as I love my kids, I think the Lord every time they get in trouble or are being uber-kids that they weren't twins.

Abducted child back home

This may be old news, but I've been mulling how to approach this story after my rant about it last week.

David and Sean Goldman have been reunited after 5 years, numerous court cases, and some international wrangling by two administrations. 

The Brazilian courts finally wound their way to the correct decision, and Mr. Goldman got the heck out of Brazil as soon as he had his son.  I'm sure it's going to be rocky for them at first, and there will be years of counseling and healing for them before all is said and done. I hope for their sake that the press backs off and lets them grow together as a family.  I wish them luck, and I give thanks that this situation is well on its way to being resolved for them.

I have always dreaded custody disputes.  My mother and father used my brothers and sisters and I as pawns, and I've shied away from court fights to protect my kids from that.  I only went to court over Girlie Bear when her mom couldn't properly take care of her.  I would have fought for Little Bear just as hard if the courts would have let me.  I've always looked for some way to come to a deal with their mom just to spare the kids a fight.

I guess my frustration over the Goldman case was me projecting my own fears on that situation. Like I said in my last post about this, having my kids in a place where I couldn't see them and had to fight for them in an unbalanced game would be my worst nightmare. 

Christmas Schlep

Hope everyone had a good holiday.  Overall ours was good.  Tiring, but good.

On Christmas Eve, BooBoo woke up with with a fever.  He hadn't been feeling well the night before, so we decided to take him to the doctor.  Luckily our family doctor was open until noon.  One double ear infection later, we picked up some antibiotics at Walgreens and headed home.  I took the day as a sick day, so I took the quiet of him sleeping to  clean the house and wrap some presents.  He was fine by the next morning.

Christmas morning started with a round trip drive across Louisville to pick up Girlie Bear and Little Bear.  She had spent the first half of Christmas break with her mom, and he wanted to come spend Christmas with us.  We went over to Indiana to see family in the afternoon, and then went back to Louisville to spend the evening with friends.  That evening I took Little Bear home, but he says he wants to come over more often.

Overall, everyone got what they wanted for Christmas.  The kids all got a bit of stuff, but not an over-the-top amount.  The older kids got mostly clothes and books.  BooBoo got a few toys, but mostly ones without speakers.  We were dreading a repeat of his birthday where all of the gifts made noise, lots of noise.  My gift to Irish Woman was to pay off her car early, and her gift to me was a box of .45 ACP in my stocking.  Got to love a woman who gives ammo for Christmas.  The kids got her a nice watch, and I got an Amazon gift card.  How did they know I had enough junk?

Our gifts to other families this year were baskets of fresh fruit and homemade cookies.  I made snickerdoodles, sandbakkel, banana spice cake, pumpkin bars, and cranberry bread.  Irish woman made chocolate chip, 7 layer cookies, and some confections that were made up of preserves and white chocolate.  Yum.

Saturday morning we went over to the home of a family that have adopted Girlie Bear and Little Bear as grandkids.  They knew their mom when she was growing up, and have filled in as the sane grandparents for those two.  They've become close, and treat Junior Bear and BooBoo just as well as they do the other two kids.  It was a nice brunch, and after eating and having coffee, we opened a few more presents.  Since Little Bear lives a block away, I had called and asked him to come over.  To my astonishment and mortal emberrassment, his mother came as well.  Nothing says Merry Christmas like the ex-wife coming over for a family gathering that includes the current wife.  Irish Woman took it all in stride, but drew the line when the ex wanted to take family pictures that included BooBoo.  Bad joo-joo there.  On the way home from that, I stopped off and bought her a nice bunch of flowers.  It's the "I'm sorry my ex showed up at the party and made you feel uncomfortable" bouquet.

Last night was the big Hoosier shindig.  About 10 families all got together for a potluck dinner and games.  Hoosier Mom and Dad are the patriarchs of this clan, and they really enjoy seeing everyone there.  All of the sons and daughters came, even the ones that had to drive through a blizzard to get home.  Hoosier Mom made sure that all 16 of her grandkids got together for a picture.  The kids all had a ball running around with their cousins, and it was nice to catch up with Irish Woman's brothers and sisters.  We had to leave a bit early because BooBoo had had a very long day and was making sure we all knew about it at about 8:30. The roads were like hockey rinks in Indiana as we made our way home, but once we got on the interstate it wasn't as bad.  I'm glad it was only a light rain/snow mix.  Much more and we would have been spending the night in Hoosier-ville.

So, we put a lot of miles on the cars this weekend, but got to see all of family.  We have a few more things to do to tie things up, but I've survived another Christmas.

Hope all of you had a good holiday, and everyone got home safe.

Picks Week 16

OK, for the 3rd straight week, I didn't get my picks in on time, and I'll have to take an automatic loss on the non-weekend game.

Here's the rest of this week's picks:

Buffalo and Atlanta - Atlanta
KC and Cinci - Cinci
Oakland and Cleveland - Oakland
Seattle and Green Bay - Green Bay
Houston and Miami - Houston
Baltimore and Pittsburgh - Baltimore
Carolina and New York Giants - Carolina
Jacksonville and New England - Jacksonville
Tampa Bay and New Orleans - New Orleans
Saint Louis and Arizona - Arizona
Detroit and San Fransisco - San Fransisco
Denver and Philadelphia -Denver
New York Jets and Indy - Indy
Dallas and Washington - Washington
Minnesota and Chicago - Chicago

Christmas Shout Outs

To the dedicated Salvation Army bell ringer in front of Walmart this afternoon, thanks.  You're doing the Lord's work.

To the nice lady who stopped and gave a soda to the bell ringer as she left and her daughter put money in his pot, good on ya! 

To the nice lady in Walmart who gave me the stinky eye because I was in line ahead of her, my apologies for being able to find what I need quicker than you did.  I'm also sorry that my milk, bread, cheese, and coffee were in line ahead of your DVD player and video games.

To the genius who came up with the automatic machine at the post office for purchasing stamps, my most heartfelt thanks.  The line to the counter was 15 deep and moving slow.

And last, but certainly not least, to the pretty young lady who left the post office as I was pulling into the parking lot, thank you.  The naughty elf outfit you were wearing put a lot of Christmas cheer into my heart.

And to the rest of you, Merry Christmas!

Life is Good

Sitting in my living room, drinking egg nog.  Siamese cat is curled up on my lap purring.  Two big dogs sleeping on the rug.  Kids safe in their beds, wife in the kitchen baking Christmas cookies.

I'm just living the dream, guys, just living the dream.

Very Pretty

Og has pics of his handiwork in putting a beautiful finish on his M1 carbine.

I put a new set of furniture for my Garand on my list-o-stuff when I bought it.  I'll have to keep the Minwax product in mind when I get it.

Insomnia

Isn't this fun?

I finally get my body used to working nights, and now I can't get to sleep at a normal hour.  I'm flipping back to days tomorrow, so I need to get to sleep, but I can only count sheep for so long.

Guess I'll find something interesting yet soporific to read and try to at least get a few hours under my belt.

Picks Week 15

Well, with all the weird scheduling this week, I forgot to get my picks in before the Thursday night game.  I'll take that as an automatic loss.

Dallas and New Orleans - New Orleans
New England and Buffalo - Buffalo
Houston and Saint Louis - Houston
Arizona and Detroit - Arizona
Atlanta and New York Jets - Jets
Cleveland and Kansas City - Cleveland
Oakland and Denver - Oakland
Cinci and San Diego - Cinci
Chicago and Baltimore - Baltimore
San Fransisco and Philadelphia - San Fransisco
Tampa Bay and Seattle - Seattle
Green Bay and Pittsburgh - Green Bay
Minnesota and Carolina - Minnesota
New York Giants and Washington - Washington
Miami and Tennessee - Tennessee

No Snow So Far

Had a few stray flakes, but nothing sticking.

Did see a few pretty impressive sets of spin-out tracks in the median on the way home.  Guess it got icy in spots.

We're projected to get another storm in later in the week.  Maybe we'll get a white Christmas.

Update - We had about half an inch of white dust on the cars and some parts of the yard this morning, so the weatherman was at least close.  I'll post pics later.

Every Father's Worst Nightmare

I've been watching the case of David Goldman and his son for a long time.  I'm sure I'm not the only divorced dad who has been monitoring the plight of this dad and his child.  For those of you who aren't familiar with the story, Mr. Goldman married a woman from Brazil and had a son. She took the boy to Brazil for a visit and then divorced him in Brazil. Of course she got custody of the little boy.  She remarried, but then died in childbirth.  Her family has kept Sean, even though his father wants him back.  Mr Goldman has been fighting his way through the Brazilian courts to  regain custody.  It's been an emotional roller coaster for him and no doubt for his son.

Every father who goes through a divorce fears that his ex will take the child or children away to a place where he can't retrieve them.  I've been there.  That's why I'm a computer geek in Kentucky instead of a government contractor in Arizona.  My lawyer in Arizona told me that if I wanted any rights to see my children, I had to go to Kentucky.  The courts just wouldn't help me much if I lived halfway across the continent.  

It's bad enough when you have to go between one US state and another.  It's quite another thing when you're fighting in the courts of another country altogether.  There are treaties to prevent just this situation, but Brazil is apparently not following their treaty obligations. 

The boy is a U.S. citizen, period.  A foreign country is holding him against the wishes of his remaining biological parent and in contravention of treaties that both countries have signed.  So far our government has only given lip service to getting the Brazilian government to release this young child to his father. Presidents Bush and Obama both made noises about this, but nothing has come of it.  The State Department is squawking now, but I don't have much faith in that resolving the issue.


Congress is threatening to stop a trade deal we have with Brazil and its neighbors.  I think this doesn't go far enough.  If I were president (OK, OK, I know, that thought gives you all shivers and night sweats) Brazil would be restricted from doing any trade with any entity that is headquartered in the United States.  I would stop our Olympic team from participating in the Rio de Janeiro Olympics. I would recall our ambassador, and ask Brazil to remove theirs.  Yes, that would hurt a valuable trading relationship and negatively impact the economies of both countries, but I'm pretty sure that Brazil would hurt more than we would.

If after 30 days they still don't send the boy home, I would go before the United Nations and ask that other countries join us in punishing Brazil for not living up to their treaty obligations.  Again, I think the global economy could survive losing Brazil better than Brazil can survive losing the rest of the global economy. 

If that still didn't work after another 90 days, I would go to Congress for a declaration of war.  It wouldn't be one of those  resolutions authorizing force.  I'm talking about an honest to goodness, re-direct the entire country to one purpose declaration of war.   Yes, that's extreme, but the life and freedom of one American citizen is worth it. 

No country has the right to unlawfully detain a citizen of another, especially a child.  Until Brazil sends little Sean home to his father, then we have no business acting like Brazil deserves our friendship.